← Wilczek - Regional Championships - PTM - 28/02/2026
Water FractalTier 1
at Wilczek - Regional Championships - PTM - 28/02/2026
decks
2
(5.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
6-6-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.8%
avg ELO +1.2 per match
expected value
50.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1285
· median 1285
· range 1276–1293
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
983
Q1 1148
Q3 1349
1510
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 10.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.4% | +1.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.9% | +2.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 5.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 68.3% | +17.6 |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.2% | -14.0 |
| Wind Razorgale | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 2.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.8% | -13.1 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.1% | -11.1 |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 2.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.0% | +7.9 |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.7% | -10.0 |
| Wind Arcane | 2.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.1% | +11.3 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
